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| #946471 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 30.Oct.2018) TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Tue Oct 30 2018 Recent microwave imagery indicates that Oscar continues to maintain a small inner-core, however, it is tilted somewhat southwest to northeast with height due to increasing southwesterly wind shear. Cloud tops have continued to warm over the past few hours, and objective and subjective intensity estimates have decreased since this morning. The initial intensity has been lowered to 75 kt, based primarily on a blend of Final-T and Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane is moving over 24 deg C waters and a cold front associated with a large mid-latitude trough is quickly approaching from the west. This combination should soon kick off the extratropical transition (ET) process, and the most recent runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET indicate that Oscar will become fully extratropical within 36 h, if not sooner. Very gradual weakening is still expected during the next day or so while ET occurs, however, all of the dynamical models forecast that Oscar will be at or very near hurricane-strength when it becomes post-tropical. The maximum winds of the cyclone will likely slowly decrease thereafter, but Oscar will likely have a very large wind field and gale-force winds are possible over a large portion of the far north Atlantic. By day 5, the post-tropical low is forecast to merge with another mid-latitude low pressure system over the far northeastern Atlantic. As expected, the hurricane is accelerating north-northeastward, with an initial motion estimate of 025/17 kt. Further acceleration is likely over the next 36 hours, and the global models are in remarkably good agreement on the track of the cyclone through that time. A turn toward the northeast is expected thereafter, and while there are still speed differences between the various global model solutions, the NHC forecast remains near the fairly steady multi-model consensus at all forecast hours. Almost no change was made to the official track forecast, which is merely an update of the previous advisory. Although Oscar is forecast to move farther from Bermuda overnight, large swells from the hurricane are expected to affect portions of the island`s coast through Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 31.3N 56.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 33.8N 54.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 38.3N 50.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 43.0N 46.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1800Z 46.7N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1800Z 54.0N 28.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1800Z 59.0N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
