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#9478 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 21.Sep.2004)
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004
0300Z WED SEP 22 2004

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 48.9W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 60NW.
50 KT.......125NE 125SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT.......250NE 250SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..660NE 420SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 48.9W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 48.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 26.6N 49.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.1N 48.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 150SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 31.7N 46.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.5N 44.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 45.5N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...275NE 275SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 54.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 60.0N 22.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 48.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA