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| #9481 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 21.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004 STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS ONCE AGAIN WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER OF KARL...POSSIBLY BECAUSE THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED IMMEDIATELY OVER THE HURRICANE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA HAVE FALLEN TO 5.0...5.0...AND 4.5 RESPECTIVELY. SINCE CI NUMBERS ARE STILL UP NEAR 6.0 AND THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE OVERALL SHEAR HAS DECREASED...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH OF KARL IS LIMITING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IT APPEARS THAT SHEAR WILL ALSO IMPACT KARL FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE STORM APPROACHES A LARGE POLAR TROUGH NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND SSTS COOL...IN LINE WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE. KARL IS NOW MOVING 350/15. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND KEEPS KARL ON AN ACCELERATING NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY THROUGH DAY 3. EXTRATROPICAL KARL WILL THEN TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE DIRECTION OF ICELAND DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER BERG/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 24.5N 48.9W 105 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 26.6N 49.3W 105 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 29.1N 48.3W 100 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 31.7N 46.2W 95 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 35.5N 44.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 45.5N 41.0W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/0000Z 54.0N 34.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/0000Z 60.0N 22.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
