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| #9503 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 22.Sep.2004) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132004 0900Z WED SEP 22 2004 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 41.2W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 41.2W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.9W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.8N 42.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.2N 43.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.6N 44.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.8N 45.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 41.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH |
