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| #9507 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 22.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004 A DOUBLE-EYEWALL STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES AND MICROWAVE PASSES OF KARL. AN INNER EYEWALL LESS THAN 15 NM IN DIAMETER IS PRESENT ALONG WITH A MUCH LARGER OUTER EYEWALL OF ABOUT 75 NM. CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE INTENSE AROUND BOTH EYEWALLS... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A BIT LOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO AS THE CI NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN AND THE CURRENT WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 100 KT. KARL REMAINS ON TRACK... MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY NEAR ITS RECURVATURE POINT AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND REMAINS CLUSTERED AROUND AN ACCELERATING NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY THROUGH DAY 3. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST KARL WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE AND WIND RADII REFLECT THE GFS WIND FORECASTS. THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURE SHOULD TAKE ITS TOLL ON KARL ESPECIALLY AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH GREATER THAN 30 KT OF SHEAR FORECAST. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. AFTERWARDS...THE GFS MODEL WAS THE MAIN BASIS FOR THE 3 AND 4 DAY FORECAST. FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 25.7N 49.5W 100 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 27.7N 49.1W 100 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 47.4W 95 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 34.0N 45.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 38.5N 43.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 48.0N 39.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/0600Z 55.5N 32.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/0600Z...ABSORBED |
