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| #9622 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 22.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 0300Z THU SEP 23 2004 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 69.3W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 420SE 420SW 600NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 69.3W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.6N 70.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.5N 78.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 69.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA |
