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| #9625 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 22.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 68 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 ...TROPICAL STORM IVAN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-ORGANIZED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS. THEREFORE... WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N... 90.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
