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| #9629 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 22.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 68 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004 ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS SHEARED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS DISORGANIZED ON SATELLITE...THERE IS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 47 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF IVAN. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER IVAN COULD RELAX SOME...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION...AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL...THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 27.4N 90.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 28.4N 91.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 29.5N 94.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 96.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 26/0000Z 32.0N 96.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING |
