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| #9661 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 23.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 69 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 ...IVAN MOVING FASTER OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS. THEREFORE... WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...28.2 N... 91.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH |
