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| #9721 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 23.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 1500Z THU SEP 23 2004 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HR. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 69.7W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 470SE 470SW 600NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 69.7W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 69.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.6N 70.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.6N 72.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.7N 74.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 76.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.3N 80.2W...NEAR FLORIDA EAST COAST MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 30.5N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 35.0N 78.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 69.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART |
