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| #9725 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 23.Sep.2004) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132004 1500Z THU SEP 23 2004 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 41.7W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 41.7W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 41.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 12.1N 42.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 12.3N 42.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 13.2N 43.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.5N 43.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 21.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 24.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 41.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
