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| #9730 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:18 AM 23.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004 EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LISA IS A LITTLE DISORGANIZED WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTH CAUSING VERTICAL SHEAR. ALSO THERE IS STILL A HINT OF TWO POORLY DEFINED CENTERS. THIS ADVISORY IS FOLLOWING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT ONE. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES VERY LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER 36 HOURS AND BRINGS LISA TO A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE. THE MOTION HAS BEEN SLOW AND GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE FORECAST IS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR SO TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME EAST-WEST SPREAD AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT AT 12 AND 24 WHEN IT IS LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS SINCE THE INITIAL MOTION IS GIVEN MORE WEIGHT. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 12.1N 41.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 12.1N 42.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 12.3N 42.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 13.2N 43.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 14.5N 43.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 45.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 21.5N 46.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 28/1200Z 24.5N 46.5W 65 KT |
