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| #974771 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 14.Jul.2019) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Barry Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Barry`s convective pattern in radar and satellite imagery has continued to erode, and the center has become more difficult to locate in radar imagery. Surface observations from the Shreveport, Louisiana, area were helpful in locating Barry`s position. Although sustained surface winds of 34-36 kt have been occurring during the past few hours at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana (PACL1), those winds are not directly associated with Barry`s circulation and are instead locally accelerated straight-line winds. Therefore, Barry`s intensity has been lowered to 30 kt for this advisory, making the cyclone a tropical depression. The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Barry is forecast to continue moving northward tonight around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge, and then turn toward the north-northeast and northeast late Monday into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the various consensus models TCVA, TVDG, and HCCA. Barry will weaken further during the next 48 hours as the cyclone continues to move inland, degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low pressure system by Monday night and dissipating on Tuesday over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the potential for flooding, including river flooding, will continue from Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Barry. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding is expected along Barry`s path inland from Louisiana through portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, southeast Missouri, and western Tennessee through at least Monday. Significant river flooding is also likely across south-central Louisiana. 2. Gale-force winds, especially in gusts, will be possible into this evening over the coastal areas of southwestern Louisiana. However, these winds are not directly associated with Barry`s circulation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 32.8N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0600Z 33.9N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1800Z 35.3N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 16/0600Z 36.8N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 16/1800Z 38.2N 91.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart |
