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| #975757 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 22.Jul.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032019 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 The depression has become less organized this evening. Much of the deep convection seen earlier in the day has dissipated, and the cyclone currently consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with some shower activity. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. The system is moving northwestward at 9 kt, steered by the southwestern periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. A turn to the north and north-northeast with a notable increase in forward speed is expected on Tuesday as the depression moves in the flow between the subtropical ridge and an approaching deep-layer trough moving across the eastern United States. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and keeps the center of the cyclone offshore of the east coast of Florida. This prediction is near the multi-model consensus TVCN. Significant strengthening of the depression is not expected given its poor initial state and because it is forecast to move into a region of strong southwesterly flow aloft by late Tuesday. In fact, the global and regional models all show the depression opening into a trough within the next 24 hours, with the remnants of the system becoming absorbed within a frontal zone off the southeast U.S. on Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and now shows dissipation occurring sooner, by 36 hours. Direct impacts from the depression are expected to be limited to 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in the Bahamas and along the east coast of Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 26.1N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 28.4N 79.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 31.7N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
