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| #9769 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 23.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 71 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 ...IVAN CONTINUES TO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COASTS... AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 65 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A MOTION BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS. THEREFORE...WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...29.4 N... 93.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
