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| #9771 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 23.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/22. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS EARLIER WITH KARL ACCELERATING MAINLY NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND CUTTING OFF A LOW. THE MOTION IS FORCAST TO BE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS...AND KARL THEN MERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND KARL SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 24 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO RAPIDLY DECREASING AND BECOMING POORLY ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INENSITY ESTIMATES. THE FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL FOR 36 HOURS AND THEN SLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND AS BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCES MAINTAIN A STRONG CIRCULATION. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 35.7N 43.3W 90 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 39.7N 42.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 44.7N 42.0W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/0600Z 49.2N 40.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/1800Z 54.0N 34.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/1800Z 62.0N 9.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
