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| #9772 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 23.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS BLOWN AWAY THE DEEP CONVECTION AND EXPOSED A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE A CENTER LOCATION WAS ESTIMATED ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS REQUIRES A RELOCATION OF THE CENTER AND IMPLIES THAT THE CENTER HAS MOVED IN A CYCLONIC OOP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 300/05. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW MOSTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LISA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE RELOCATION. THE ABSENCE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS GROUNDS FOR DOWNGRADING LISA TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS...A LITTLE MORE THAN SHIPS BUT NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL MODEL. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 14.3N 40.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 14.4N 41.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 14.9N 41.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 43.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.3N 44.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 20.2N 45.2W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 23.0N 46.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 27.0N 47.0W 55 KT |
