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| #9775 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 PM 23.Sep.2004) TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132004 2100Z THU SEP 23 2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 40.7W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 40.7W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 40.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.4N 41.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.9N 41.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N 43.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.3N 44.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.2N 45.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 23.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 40.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
