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| #978950 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 21.Aug.2019) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Deep convection associated with Chantal has diminished and is confined to some disorganized patches of showers and thunderstorms northeast of the center. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, pending the arrival of new scatterometer data. The cyclone should continue to move through a dry mid- to low-level air mass, with humidities less than 40 percent, during the next few days. This is likely to cause weakening, and it is expected that Chantal will become a tropical depression tomorrow and a remnant low by Friday. Given the current appearance of the system, loss of tropical cyclone status and dissipation are now forecast to occur much sooner than earlier anticipated. This is in good agreement with the latest HWRF model run. The storm is moving just south of east, or 100/17 kt. Little change has been made to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Chantal should follow a clockwise path, around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area, at a slower forward speed over the next few days. In 3-4 days, what is left of the cyclone is likely to turn northwestward to northward. The official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus, TVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 39.8N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 39.4N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 38.5N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 35.4N 42.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z 36.0N 42.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
