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| #978980 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 21.Aug.2019) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Chantal's cloud pattern has become quite ragged during the past several hours with a shrinking intermittently bursting convective mass remaining sheared to the east of the surface center. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt and is in agreement with a recent 0020 UTC ASCAT-A overpass and the subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. There are no changes to the philosophy of the intensity forecast. Further weakening is forecast through the period as the depression continues moving through an inhibiting, high statically stable surrounding environment. The official forecast calls for Chantal to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night, if not sooner, and is based primarily on the deterministic models. The initial motion is estimated to be east-southeastward, or 105/16 kt, within the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies. Chantal is forecast to turn southeastward to southward, around the eastern periphery of a subtropical high, with a reduction in forward speed, over the next couple of days. By Saturday night, the remnants of Chantal is likely to turn toward the west-northwest as high pressure near the Azores Islands builds to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is a compromise of the TVCA multi-model guidance and the NOAA HFIP corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 39.4N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 38.8N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 37.9N 42.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 36.8N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 35.9N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 35.8N 42.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
