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| #979004 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 22.Aug.2019) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal has been able to sustain an area of convection just to the east of its low-level center since the last advisory, and final-T numbers are actually back up to a unanimous T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is therefore held at 30 kt. The depression is getting ready to move over a tongue of slightly warmer waters, and vertical shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt in a day or two. However, there is abundant dry air around the system, and upper-level convergence is expected to increase, both of which should extinguish Chantal's organized deep convection in 24-36 hours. The NHC intensity forecast continues to most closely follow the global models, with Chantal expected to become a remnant low on Friday and degenerate into a trough on Sunday. Chantal is moving south of due east and a little slower than before, or 100/15 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the south is expected to build over Chantal in the coming days, leaving the depression in weak steering flow and causing it to make a slow clockwise loop before it dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is mainly an update of the previous one and lies between the ECMWF, HCCA, and the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 39.1N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 36.2N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
