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| #979036 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 22.Aug.2019) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal continues to produce an area of deep convection just northeast of the mostly exposed low-level center. Recent scatterometer data shows winds near 30 kt to the southeast east of the center, and the initial intensity is again held at 30 kt. The cyclone is moving toward warmer sea surface temperatures and into an area of decreasing vertical wind shear. However, abundant dry air and increasing upper-level convergence should cause the system's convection to dissipate in 24 h or so. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for the cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipating completely by 96 h. The initial motion is 100/15 as Chantal is moving along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. A low- to mid-level ridge to the south is expected to build northward between the depression and the westerlies, leaving Chantal in weak steering flow and causing it to make a slow clockwise loop before it dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is similar to, but slightly north of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 38.8N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 38.0N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 36.9N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 36.1N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 35.7N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 36.6N 42.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
