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| #979065 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 22.Aug.2019) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal is still producing deep convection to the east of the exposed low-level center. The initial intensity will be held at 30 kt based on a combination of earlier scatterometer data and current satellite intensity estimates. While the cyclone continues to move toward warmer sea surface temperatures and into an area of decreasing vertical wind shear, abundant dry air and increasing upper-level convergence should cause the associated convection to dissipate in 24 h or so. There is no change to the previous intensity forecast, and Chantal is expected to decay to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipated completely by 96 h. The initial motion is now 110/12. A building low- to mid-level ridge is separating Chantal from the mid-latitude westerlies, and this should leave the cyclone in an area of weak steering currents. The track guidance continues to forecast a clockwise loop before the cyclone dissipates, and the new official forecast track is basically an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 38.1N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 36.3N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 35.5N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 37.0N 42.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
