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| #979121 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 23.Aug.2019) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 Chantal's convection has become quite meager, with small intermittent bursts continuing mainly to the east of the center. Given the decreasing convective organization, Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB are down to 1.5, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered to 25 kt. Large-scale subsidence and a very dry air mass are making it harder and harder for Chantal to maintain organized deep convection, and it's likely that the depression will degenerate into a remnant low within the next 24 hours. Each of the global models shows the remnant low hanging around for various periods of time, but the official forecast continues to show dissipation in 72 hours, which is in closest agreement with the ECMWF model. Chantal is moving southeastward, or 140/7 kt. High pressure in the lower levels of the atmosphere is expected to jump from the southwest to the northeast of Chantal during the next couple of days, which will cause the depression/remnant low to move slowly southward and then westward before dissipating. The latest track guidance (and thus the official forecast) shows a more sweeping curved trajectory than before, but in the grand scheme of things the change is not that significant. The new NHC forecast generally lies between the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 37.1N 40.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 36.3N 40.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 35.4N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1800Z 35.2N 42.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0600Z 35.4N 43.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
