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| #979152 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 23.Aug.2019) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 Chantal is currently producing only small bursts of convection over the northern semicircle, and visible satellite imagery suggests that the low-level circulation is becoming less well defined. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on current satellite intensity estimates, but it is possible this is a little generous. A combination of dry air and large-scale subsidence is expected to prevent the return of persistent deep convection, and if current trends continue Chantal could degenerate to a remnant low later today or tonight. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by 72 h, which is unchanged from the previous forecast. The initial motion is now 155/6. There is little change to either the forecast philosophy or the forecast track from the previous advisory. The cyclone is embedded in the subtropical ridge, and the core of the ridge is forecast to shift from southwest to northeast of Chantal during the next couple of days. This evolution should cause Chantal or its remnants to make a clockwise half loop before the system dissipates. Like its predecessor, the new forecast track lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 36.6N 40.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 35.8N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 35.3N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 35.3N 43.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 35.5N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
