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| #979265 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 24.Aug.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 The small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past several days across the tropical Atlantic Ocean has acquired enough deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression, the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2019 hurricane season. Two ASCAT passes between 1200-1300Z this morning indicated that the system had a closed circulation and surface winds of at least 30 kt, and that is the intensity set for this advisory. Upper-level outflow is fair to the northwest and restricted to the southeast due to moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The NHC model guidance is in very good agreement that the cyclone will move in a general west-northwestward direction along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 5 days, bring the system through the central or northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. The official forecast track is close to the consensus model TVCN, which is a little north of the NOAA HCCA corrected-consensus model. The small cyclone is currently experiencing easterly to southeasterly shear of about 15 kt. The shear is forecast to steadily decrease over the next 24 h and be around 5 kt in the 24-to-72-hour time period. Although the depression is expected to remain embedded in a fairly dry mid-level environment, the small overall circulation, small radius of maximum winds, low shear regime, and warm SSTs of 28.0-28.5 deg C should allow for slow but steady intensification through the 5-day period despite occasional intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models, and the more robust HWRF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 10.4N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 10.7N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 11.0N 51.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 11.4N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 12.0N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 13.6N 59.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 15.2N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 17.1N 66.7W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart |
