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| #979510 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 26.Aug.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 58.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas later could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by satellite and Martinique radar near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 58.3 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight, and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Dorian is expected to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern Windward Islands on Tuesday, and it is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St. Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada and across Dominica. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday within the Hurricane Watch area in the Lesser Antilles. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by tonight or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
