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| #979803 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 28.Aug.2019) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Erin has become less organized this morning with the center exposed and becoming more removed from the remaining deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased and a blend of these support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. The northwesterly shear that has been affecting Erin is forecast to decrease somewhat later today and tonight, but given the current structure of the system, little overall change in intensity is anticipated during that time. If convection does not re-develop closer to the center later today, Erin could become post-tropical. An alternate scenario is for the circulation to become elongated and lose definition as a mid- latitude trough approaches from the west. The global models suggest that the trough is likely to help Erin or its remnants deepen somewhat as an extratropical low on Thursday. The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and shows little change in strength today, then indicates that Erin or its remnants will become an extratropical gale by 36 hours. Erin is now moving north-northwestward at 11 kt. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on Erin turning northward and then northeastward by Thursday ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough. Erin or its remnants are forecast to accelerate and reach Nova Scotia in about 36 hours. The guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward, and the updated official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 33.6N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 35.5N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 39.0N 70.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 43.8N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1200Z 48.9N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
