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| #980052 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 30.Aug.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019 ...DORIAN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 69.1W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 69.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the day. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Dorian is likely to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from an earlier Hurricane Hunter mission is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday night or Sunday morning. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: The northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
