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| #9803 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 23.Sep.2004) TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132004 0300Z FRI SEP 24 2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 42.0W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 42.0W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 41.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.1N 42.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N 44.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.9N 45.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 24.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 28.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 42.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA |
