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| #980369 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 01.Sep.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...EYE OF CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN OVER THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS... ...HEADING WITH ALL ITS FURY TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 77.1W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM OVER GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island * North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the extremely distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 77.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Great Abaco today and the move near or over Grand Bahama Island tonight and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, and Dorian is expected to remain a catastrophic hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure measured by both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance plane was 911 mb (26.90 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions are occurring in the Abacos Islands and will spread across Grand Bahama Island later today and tonight. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase as the eye passes. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Florida by late Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Volusia/Brevard County Line to Jupiter Inlet FL...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...2 to 4 ft The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week: Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are already affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. Hourly Tropical Cyclone Update statements will begin at 300 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
