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| #9806 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 23.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 80 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT LISA. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT LISA WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS INDICATES STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BY DAY 4 AND OPENS LISA INTO A WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST BUT NOT QUITE AS GENEROUS AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. INITIAL MOTION IS 290/6 KT. FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO CONFORM WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 14.7N 42.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 15.1N 42.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 15.9N 44.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 16.9N 45.1W 30 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 18.5N 46.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 21.0N 47.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 24.0N 48.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 28.5N 48.5W 50 KT |
