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| #980657 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:15 AM 03.Sep.2019) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 94.3W ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from La Pesca northward to Barra El Mezquital. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * La Pesca to Barra El Mezquital A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 94.3 West. The system is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the west or west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later today and become a tropical storm by tonight. Shower and thunderstorm activity has been steadily increasing in coverage and organization this morning, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Wednesday evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches will be likely over portions of northeastern Mexico, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
