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| #980699 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 03.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Recent radar and aircraft data show that Dorian has finally begun to move northwestward, but dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge will continue over Grand Bahama Island for much of today. The eye has become cloud filled in infrared and visible satellite imagery. While aircraft and radar data indicate that the eye has increased in size, it is also a bit more ragged. Recent reports from reconnaissance aircraft and data buoys indicate that overall wind field of the hurricane is slowly expanding, while the peak winds have come down a little more. The latest reports from the aircraft support an initial intensity of 95 kt. As Dorian moves near the east coast of Florida during the next day or two, little overall change in intensity is anticipated. After that time, increasing shear should result in a gradual decrease in the peak wind speed while the hurricane gains latitude and grows in size. The official forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus models. The initial motion estimate is 320/2 kt. A shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes region is forecast by the global models to amplify a deep-layer trough along the east coast of the United States on Wednesday. This should allow Dorian to begin moving slightly faster toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours, followed by a northward and then northeastward motion near or over the coasts of South and North Carolina. After moving offshore of the Outer Banks, Dorian should get caught in the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate northeastward. The NHC track is along the western edge of the interpolated track models through 36 hours, closer to what is depicted in the various global fields. After that time, the official forecast is near a blend of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF models. Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, the increasing size of Dorian`s wind field along with any deviation to the left of the forecast track will bring hurricane-force winds onshore along portions of the Florida east coast. The new forecast has necessitated numerous changes to watches and warnings along the southeastern United States coast. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain in shelter. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian`s center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast during the middle and latter part of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 27.1N 78.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 30.7N 79.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 32.1N 79.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 35.3N 75.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 40.5N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 48.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown |
