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| #980748 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 03.Sep.2019) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...FERNAND MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO EXTENDS WARNING SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 95.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Barra del Tordo southward to Puerto Altamira. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the eastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 95.9 West. Fernand is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight with some decrease in forward speed. A motion toward the west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday, followed by a motion toward the northwest on Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Fernand is expected to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast before Fernand moves inland. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Fernand. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area late tonight or early Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the lower Texas coast. RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods. South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas through Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
