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| #980755 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 03.Sep.2019) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Scatterometer data near 1600 UTC showed an area of 35-kt winds about 90 n mi west of the center of Tropical Depression Seven, and based on this it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernand. Satellite imagery indicates a gradual increase in organization, with a well-defined low cloud swirl on the southeast edge of a growing area of central convection, accompanied by a large outer band in the northwestern semicircle. The initial motion is now 265/6. A deep-layer ridge over the southern United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward for the next 12 h or so, followed by a west-northwestward to northwestward motion for the remainder of its lifetime. The new forecast track now lies near the various consensus models and calls for the center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in just over 24 h. Based mainly on the current position and motion, the new track is a little south of the previous track, and at this time it appears unlikely that watches or warnings will be needed for the lower Texas coast. An environment of moderate easterly shear appears conducive for gradual strengthening before the cyclone moves into Mexico, and the new intensity forecast now shows a peak intensity of 45 kt near landfall. After landfall, Fernand should weaken, with the system dissipating completely over northeastern Mexico by 72 h. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.4N 95.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 23.4N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 23.7N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 24.2N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1800Z 25.0N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
