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| #980806 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 03.Sep.2019) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 96.4W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the eastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 96.4 West. Fernand is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a track toward the west-northwest is anticipated on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Fernand is expected to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico on Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight increase in intensity is possible before landfall. Once inland, weakening is expected and Fernand should dissipate in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center mainly to the west of the center. Data from the reconnaissance plane indicate that the tropical storm force winds are already near the coast of Mexico. The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane was 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already very near the coast within the warning area and will continue to increase on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the lower Texas coast. RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northeast Mexico: Central Tamaulipas and southern Nuevo Leon 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches in the Sierra Madre Oriental. Northern Tamaulipas and northern Nuevo Leon: 3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods. South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas through Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
