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| #980853 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 04.Sep.2019) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...FERNAND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 96.8W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely occurring somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere along the eastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 96.8 West. Fernand is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected today, and the center of Fernand is forecast to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight increase in intensity is possible before landfall. Once inland, rapid weakening is expected, and Fernand should dissipate on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within the warning area and will continue to increase today. Squalls with gusts to tropical storm force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the lower Texas coast. RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northeast Mexico: Tamaulipas and Central/Southern Nuevo Leon: 6 to 12 inches with isolated 18 inches, highest along the immediate Gulf Coast and in the Sierra Madre Oriental. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Northern Nuevo Leon and Southern Coahuila: 3 to 6 inches. South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas through this evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
