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| #981179 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 05.Sep.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 05 2019 Gabrielle is barely holding on to its status as a tropical cyclone. The closest deep convection is now displaced over 100 n mi to the north of the tropical storm`s low-level center, and Dvorak intensity estimates have continued to decrease quickly. Given the lack of deep convection where the strongest winds were observed in earlier ASCAT data (not to mention near the cyclone`s center), some weakening has likely occurred since then. The intensity is therefore set at 40 kt for this advisory. Very high shear should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours, and it is unlikely that Gabrielle will become any better organized during that period. In fact, it can not be ruled out that the cyclone could briefly become post-tropical due to a lack of deep convection during that period. However, the shear should decrease in a couple of days, and the cyclone will then be moving over very warm SSTs. Deep convection will likely increase over the weekend and some strengthening is still forecast thereafter. Most of the dynamical models even suggest that Gabrielle could become a hurricane before it starts to become extratropical sometime next week. The statistical guidance isn`t nearly as bullish, so the NHC forecast continues to show only slow strengthening through the end of the forecast period. The tropical storm has slowed in the short term, but is forecast by all of the guidance to accelerate northwestward overnight. The models remain in very good agreement that Gabrielle will then continue northwestward for a few days before recurving early next week ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough. Once again, little change has been made to the NHC track forecast which is very close to the multi-model consensus at every forecast hour. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 23.4N 35.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 24.6N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 26.6N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 28.5N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 30.2N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 33.3N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 37.5N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 43.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
