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| #981181 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 05.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 During the last 12 h, Dorian appears to have started the expected slow weakening trend. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data show that the central pressure inside the 35-45 n mi wide eye is slowly rising, and satellite imagery indicates that the eye is becoming less well defined. The current Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported maximum SFMR surface wind estimates of 88 kt, along with 700 mb flight-level winds of 91 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is reduced to 90 kt. The hurricane is continuing its expected northeastward turn, and the initial motion is now 035/9. The mid-latitude westerlies should steer Dorian generally northeastward at an increasing forward speed, with the eye passing near of over portions of the North Carolina coast during the next 12-24 h. After that, Dorian is forecast to move quickly across the northwest Atlantic and be near or over the Canadian Maritimes/Atlantic provinces by 60 h. As was the case in the previous advisory, the track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous one. Due to increasing shear, Dorian is forecast to slowly weaken as it moves near and along the South and North Carolina coasts. Extratropical transition should begin around 36-48 h and be complete by 60 h, although Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force winds through the transition. After transition is complete, the extratropical low should weaken over the far north Atlantic and be absorbed into a larger low pressure area by 120 h. The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. It also appears that Dorian will affect portion of eastern Canada as a hurricane-force extratropical low. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian`s center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia through tonight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 33.1N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 42.0N 65.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 50.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 56.0N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
