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| #981212 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:18 PM 05.Sep.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 50A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Corrected to add Tropical Storm Warning from Edisto Beach to South Santee River ...EYEWALL OF DORIAN VERY NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.4N 78.0W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Cape Fear. The Hurricane Warning from Edisto Beach SC to the South Santee River has been changed to Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Edisto Beach has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Poquoson VA * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Hampton Roads A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River * North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha`s Vineyard MA A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 78.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later Saturday or Saturday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (160 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina. Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). Frying Pan Shoals just reported a peak gust of 70 mph (113 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are beginning to spread along portions of the North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still affecting the northern portion of the South Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday and over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through early Friday across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
