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| #981284 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 06.Sep.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 ...EYE OF DORIAN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT... ...HURRICANE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.6N 76.2W ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM E OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning from South Santee River, SC to Little River Inlet. The Storm Surge Warning south of Surf City has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Surf City NC to Poquoson VA * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Hampton Roads A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nova Scotia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River SC to Little River Inlet * North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha`s Vineyard MA A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands * Fundy National Park to Shediac. * Francois to Boat Harbour. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 76.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian should remain a powerful hurricane as it moves near or along the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). A NOAA weather station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, located inside the western eyewall of Dorian has reported sustained hurricane-force winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust to 94 mph (152 km/h). This is equivalent to a 1-minute sustained wind speed of 81 mph (130 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon near Atlantic Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) and a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading northward along portions of the North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still affecting the northern portion of the South Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states later today and over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Surf City to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday. Northeastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated storm totals 15 inches. Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches. Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches. Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches. New Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
