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| #981288 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 06.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 The center of the eye of Hurricane Dorian is located just off the coast of North Carolina not far from Cape Lookout. Based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and Doppler radar velocities, the initial intensity is set at 80 kt. This estimate is a compromise between the flight-level winds and SFMR values. The minimum pressure remains quite low, 956 mb, based on surface observations and aircraft fixes. There have been several reports in eastern North Carolina of sustained tropical-storm-force winds and hurricane-force gusts, with the strongest winds being reported in the northern eyewall. Dorian is moving northeastward at 12 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next few days as a mid- to upper-level trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system and accelerates the steering flow. This track forecast takes the hurricane along the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours and near or over Atlantic Canada this weekend. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The hurricane is expected to gradually weaken during the next couple of days due to an increase in wind shear and drier air. Dorian is expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current in about 36 hours, and head over much colder waters after that. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions should cause the cyclone to become a powerful hurricane-force extratropical in about 2 days. As the system gains latitude, the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to expand significantly. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and in line with the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia this morning. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 34.6N 76.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 38.8N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 42.5N 65.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 46.7N 61.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0600Z 58.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
