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| #9813 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 23.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004 ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND THERE IS GOOD ORGANIZATION... THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. THIS WAS PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE FACT THAT JEANNE HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR A DAY OR SO...RESULTING IN UPWELLING AND COOLER WATERS. THE WINDS COULD BE LOWERED AT THIS TIME BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR THE RECON WHICH WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY EARLY FRIDAY. SO FOR NOW THE WINDS REMAIN AT 90 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND AS SOON AS JEANNE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THIS AREA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS THEN ANTICIPATED. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO FORCE JEANNE WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD...THE HURRICANE SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. BY THEN...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND THE HURRICANE WILL TURN GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH. THIS TURN COULD EITHER OCCUR OVER THE PENINSULA OR ALONG THE EAST COAST. NEVERTHERLESS...JEANNE IS A THREAT TO FLORIDA. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTENTLY HAVE BEEN BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 26.1N 70.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 26.1N 72.2W 95 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 26.1N 74.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 26.2N 77.0W 105 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.0W 105 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 29.0N 81.0W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 80.5W 45 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 29/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER |
