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| #981342 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 06.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 The eye of Dorian made landfall over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, at about 1235 UTC and then moved quickly northeastward into the Atlantic. A combination of surface observations and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the maximum winds are near 80 kt and the central pressure is near 957 mb. The hurricane remains well-organized in satellite imagery, with the 30 n mi wide eye surrounded by cold convective banding. The initial motion is now 045/15. Dorian should accelerate northeastward during the next 24-36 h as a mid- to upper-level trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system and accelerates the steering flow. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new track forecast is changed little in either direction or speed from the previous forecast. The new forecast calls for Dorian to move away from the North Carolina coast today, pass well southeast of southern New England tonight and Saturday, and then move over Nova Scotia Saturday or Saturday night. A continued northeastward motion is then expected to bring the cyclone across Newfoundland into the far north Atlantic. Dorian is expected to slowly weaken due to increased shear and entrainment of drier air during the next 24 h or so. After that time, the hurricane is expected to undergo extratropical transition and become a large and powerful post-tropical low. It is unclear whether the transition will be complete before Dorian reaches Nova Scotia. However, whether Dorian is a hurricane or a hurricane-force extratropical low, it is expected to bring strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rains to portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The new NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast, and it follows the trend of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay for the next several hours. 2. Areas of flash flooding, some of which may be significant and life-threatening, will continue into early afternoon across portions of northeastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia. 3. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 35.7N 74.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 37.4N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 40.7N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 44.9N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1200Z 48.8N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
