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| #981387 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 PM 06.Sep.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 ...DORIAN MOVING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.9N 72.7W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Newfoundland from Boat Harbour to Triton. All Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are discontinued south of the North Carolina/Virginia Border. The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued north of the North Carolina/Virginia border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Salter Path NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands * Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson`s Pond to Indian Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha`s Vineyard MA * East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fundy National Park to Shediac * Parson`s Pond to Triton * Indian Harbour to Stone`s Cove A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 36.9 North, longitude 72.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should move move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. After that time, Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds Saturday night or Sunday while it is near or over eastern Canada. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will persist for a few more hours in the warning area over the Mid-Atlantic states. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area Saturday or Saturday night, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada by Saturday, and they are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Saturday and Saturday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Salter Path to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4 inches. Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
