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| #981388 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:12 PM 06.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Dorian has become better organized since it moved into the Atlantic this morning, and satellite imagery shows that it now has a well-defined eye embedded in a central dense overcast along with a large outer banding feature in the northwestern semicircle. The last aircraft data near 1700 UTC indicated this had not yet resulted in intensification. However, the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are trending upward, and the advisory intensity of 80 kt could be conservative. The hurricane currently has excellent outflow over the northern semicircle. The initial motion is now 050/21. Dorian should move quickly northeastward during the next 24-48 h as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough, currently over the eastern Great Lakes. The track guidance has changed little and remains tightly clustered, and only minor adjustments have been made to the previous track. The new forecast track calls for Dorian to pass well southeast of southern New England tonight and Saturday, and then move over Nova Scotia Saturday or Saturday night. A continued northeastward motion is then expected to bring the cyclone across Newfoundland into the far north Atlantic. There has been a significant change to the intensity forecast philosophy. The GFS and ECMWF, which have been forecasting Dorian to transition to a powerful extratropical low, now forecast intensification of the system due to baroclinic processes associated with the aforementioned trough, including very strong upper-level divergence. Given that Dorian is currently a well-organized hurricane and will be south of the Gulf Stream for about the next 18-24 h, it is likely that at least some of this strengthening will occur before Dorian becomes extratropical. The new intensity forecast now calls for Dorian to strengthen as a hurricane during the next 12-24 h, then undergo extratropical transition as it is passing near or over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The intensities in the new forecast are increased during the first 24 h to reflect this change. Dorian is likely to be a hurricane at landfall in Nova Scotia, but it will cause significant impacts even if it has completed extratropical transition by that time. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue along portions of the North Carolina coast for the next several hours. 2. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions of eastern Canada. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 36.9N 72.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 39.1N 69.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 42.9N 65.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 47.1N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 50.6N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1800Z 55.5N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
