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| #981715 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 09.Sep.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Mon Sep 09 2019 Satellite imagery continues to show symmetric convection around the center of Gabrielle despite some gradual warming in the cloud tops seen in the latest GOES infrared imagery. The initial wind speed was maintained at 45 kt, near the TAFB satellite estimate and a little above the SAB estimate. Gabrielle remains on a northeastward motion and is moving a bit faster than the previous advisory, or 040/18 kt. The system is expected to further increase in forward speed in a similar direction over the next couple of days due to strengthening southwesterly flow near a mid-latitude trough. Only a slight northward adjustment was made to the prior NHC forecast since, overall, model guidance remains tightly clustered with the track of Gabrielle. The storm has less than a day over marginally warm waters before it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream and into much colder waters. Gabrielle should transition into an extratropical low on Tuesday night as a result of an increase in shear and low-level baroclinicity from an approaching cold front. The intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous forecast and continues to use a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model wind fields. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 40.7N 45.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 42.6N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 45.1N 37.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 48.2N 31.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1800Z 52.0N 22.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Taylor/Blake |
