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| #982038 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:47 PM 12.Sep.2019) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 74.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the poorly defined center of the disturbance was located by satellite, surface observations, and reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. The disturbance has been stationary over the southeastern Bahamas. The system is expected to move slowly toward the northwest by early Friday, and this motion is forecast to continue during the next 2 days. On this track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or over the east coast of Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday over the Bahamas and along the east coast of Florida north of West Palm Beach. Isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches are possible in the northwest and central Bahamas. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwest Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
