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| #982055 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 12.Sep.2019) TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 74.5W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 74.5W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.6N 75.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N 77.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 26.5N 78.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.5N 80.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.8N 81.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 30.8N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 74.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
